League of Legends World Championship: Week One Analysis
This Silk site contains data from week one of the group stage from the LoL 2015 Season World Championship tournament.
16 seeded teams will gather in Europe to compete for a first place prize of $1,000,000, with teams coming from play regions North America, Europe, China, Korea, Brazil, and Taiwan.
Visual and detailed analysis of group standings, blue/red side, champions, and players are included below.
A total of 24 matches were played in week one of Worlds 2015 in Paris. These results were collected from Esportspedia match history tables.
Only care about a certain group? Want to see which teams won on red side? Use the filters to narrow down the data.
Match Results of week one
Week ones match results
Is there really a blue side advantage?
66% of the games were won on blue side, it's uncertain whether blue actually has an advantage on Summoners Rift. Perhaps the stronger teams just had more games on blue side this week, but we will see if this statistic persists from this Thursday onward.
Here are some possible advantages I can think of from playing blue side:
- First ban and pick in champion selection, possibly allowing teams to dictate the games draft.
- Arguably easier Dragon steals as they are somewhat protected over the wall of the pit.
- Easier access to the Baron area due to the position of blue sides jungle.
The table below shows blue side bans for all games played so far. Change the filter on who is playing blue to try to find out if teams have specific ban patterns in use, and what certain teams are scared of playing against.
For example, C9 have banned Elise and picked Lee Sin in both their blue side games so far. Looking at the emerging ban pattern from CLG we can deduce Doublelift really doesn't want to play against Malphite (specifically want to avoid a Red side 5th pick Malphite).
Game datacards with Blue as Winning Side
High priority on top lane and jungle picks across the teams.
The Metagame at Worlds
Champion Data - Plotting Winrate and KP %
Winrate and Kill Participation % of Champions played so far at Worlds
A Scatter Plot showing Win Rates and Kill Participation percentages for every champion played at worlds. See that outlier in the low left? Yep, its TBQ's Vi.
There is a big cluster around 50% winrate and 70% kill participation which is about average in this tournament. Notice a small cluster of unreasonably effective picks sitting at > 65% winrate and > 60% kill participation, these are probably going to be prioritised in the coming week of play.
- Incarnation's Veigar - Veigar really worked well with C9s siege composition against ahq, bringing C9 the fastest win of the group at around 23 mins played.
- Marin's Renekton, Rumble - Marin's had dominating performance in this tournament so far, having a perfect 10-0 game on Renekton and a 5-1 victory on Rumble. The hype train was behind Faker but Marin's been doing most of the carrying so far for SKT1.
- Smeb and Gorilla's Kennen - Both of these players can interchange this champion and it was used as a flex pick in KOO's game against CLG. Smeb ended up playing it toplane against ZionSpartan's Olaf, carrying the game with a dominating scoreline of 7-1-7.
- xPeke's Anivia - Really smart pick by Origen here against TSM. A good counter to American style siege compositions with the wall and wave clear.
- Karsa's Nidalee - Karsa had an excellent Nidalee game against KOO, with a quiet early game FW played from behind. Between Maple and Karsa's excellent teamfighting they secured Baron at about 26 minutes. FW were able to take 5 turrets and eventually an inhibitor on that power play.
Champion performance metrics
Most banned champions
Most picked champions
Ten most effective champions (at least three picks and sorted by highest win percentage)
Ten least effective champions (at least two picks and sorted by lowest win percentage)
Champions performing well
Among the champions that are performing extremely well at this tournament are Elise, which has been picked or banned in every game so far with a 60% winrate over 9 games played. She is the strongest early game jungler at the moment, being able to execute easier tower dives due to her rappel spell along with CC and high damage throughout the early and midgame.
Azir with over 70% winrate after 7 games played, C9 Incarnation has been tearing it up in Group B with this champion. C9 in particular have found a very effective tower pushing and team fighting composition based on Azir and Tristana.
Gangplank and Mordekaiser have a 100% winrate in games played so far with 5 played between the two picks, they also dominate in the KDA stat as they seem to take over the game entirely. Morderkaiser changes the way the entire game is played, and Gangplank does ridiculous amounts of damage while still having a global ultimate. You will see in the table below that both these champions have high kill participation, and a huge Gold per Minute stat of around 430 due to these attributes.
Morgana has also been a sleeper successful pick, with a 100% winrate over 4 games, C9 has used this on both their blue side games, with KOO and FW also taking a game each with the pick. Her black shield allows slightly more safety for your carries against crowd control effects, and her bindings can generate picks with good vision control, or change the outcome of a 5v5 teamfight.
Champions performing poorly
Only 1 out of 4 games have been won with Orianna, where OG produced an excellent teamfight combo to topple LGD in group D. Febiven has lost 2 games with her against ahq and C9, even though he maintained quite a good personal scoreline, he had trouble carrying his team.
Since Orianna relies on good initiations and area of effect damage, it may not be the most reliable against high mobility skirmish teams as we saw against ahq. Even in the game LGD lost, Imp managed to flash almost every Orianna ultimate.
Gnar has a surprisingly low success rate this year, it has been picked a lot as a safe laner against juggernauts coming out like Darius. Unfortunately aside from some standout performances by Ziv and Smeb it has not been that effective. Teams are playing compositions with high kite potential, there is a lot of Elise and Sivir being played which is making it easier to play around Gnars rage bar mechanic.
Top 15 Champions by % Pick/Ban in draft
Group standings and predictions for week two
Each team will face every other team in their group twice leading to six games played for each team in total. The top two teams from each group advance to the playoffs which is held with a single elimination best of five format.
Group A standings
CLG and KOO are tied taking the top two positions in Group A at worlds after the first week. FW and paiN gaming are also tied in the bottom half making this one of the closer groups at worlds this year. FW and paiN have a decent chance to make it out of the group stage if they perform well in the coming set of games.
We have seen some good performances out of both paiN and FW, who are now sitting at one win each. FW pulling of an impressive win against the KOO Tigers rallying around Maple's Gangplank and Karsa's Nidalee.
KOO has had some pretty dominating performances against CLG and paiN I also think they have the champion and strategy pool to easily make it out of this group and be a strong contender in the playoffs.
This group is one of the hardest to predict. To me, it seems probable that the KOO Tigers will make it out in first place with CLG taking second spot, but this group is going to be a close one. FW and paiN still both have a significant potential to upset, with CLG being the most likely target if this does occur.
CLG is quite dependent on the bot lane at this tournament with Zion not really showing up (scoreline 1-4 against FW), and Pobelter playing utility champions. FW and paiN need to focus on shutting down or at least containing Doublelift and Aphromoo in the bottom lane to pull out a win against CLG. I'd say FW has a medium chance of an upset against CLG, with an upset for paiN being slightly less likely.
Game length of Game datacards with A as Group
Group B standings
Defying everyones expectations, C9 had a perfect first week at worlds. In the weeks coming up to the group stage matches, everyone was talking about IG, FNC, and ahq for possible group leaders. When it came to C9 it was mostly silence and bad puns about C9 Balls.
However after the first 3 games played, C9 are leading 3-0 (a worrying trend for group B), and the rest of the group is tied 1-2 making this the most precarious group at worlds this year. GGWP C9 in the group stage, but they do need to look ahead to the playoffs and have answers for what happens if their opposition either forces them off of their siege comp, or has some counters in place for it. Does C9 have more strategies available?
ahq has been playing a very one dimensional playstyle, I'd like to see IG and FNC adopt a more American style fastpush with Tristana / Jinx against them to punish their lack of waveclear. Westdoor has played only Fizz at this tournament and this will be a problem if he doesn't switch it up in week two.
C9 only has to win one more game next week to advance from the group, which is quite likely. While the other three teams that are tied now are all extremely strong contenders, it's likely FNC or IG will be taking the second spot.
Huni and Yellowstar have also been making some questionable plays in week one, which makes me really wonder if FNC will make it. I suspect IG will be coming out much stronger in week two, and if they play a slightly more conservative top lane pick while finding a good matchup against Febiven they have a good chance at finding success.
Febiven hasn't been running TP in his week one games and IG's Rookie matched that in week one, with an unfavourable matchup. Either they have to win the lane with a counterpick, or bring TP to force powerplays against Fnatic.
Group C standings
The only group to follow predictions widely held before the tournament began, SKT are sitting on top with a perfect first week, with EDG in second place only dropping a game to the Koreans.
Marin is really showing up with dominant performances on three different champions in three different games. Going off of the footage from all of the games so far I'd put him as the strongest top laner in the tournament.
EDG are again stepping up to the plate with their reputation of destroying wildcard teams in international play. They close out the match against BKT in 20 minutes, the shortest game so far at worlds.
Group C seems to be one of the groups with the most decisive victories, having a shorter game length on average than any other group. With the elite teams SKT and EDG in the same group as a weaker looking H2K and a wildcard team BKT, this group is playing out just as expected.
I think SKT will definitely advance, with EDG very likely taking the second spot. H2k has a very small outside chance of upsetting EDG next week. If SKT and EDG make it out of this group they will be on opposite sides of the bracket and favourites for the finals.
I'd be most worried for EDG if they end up on the same side of the bracket as Origen, I think they would fare well against C9, or KOO Tigers from the other groups.
Game length of Game datacards with C as Group
Group D standings
In group D TSM are having decent early games, but the mid-game planning and team fighting just isn't there to take games off of Origen or KT Rolster.
The Chinese squad LGD are in very bad shape without even achieving a single win in the first week. Origen and KT however leading the group with some exceptional play, with Origen at a perfect 3-0 in their first week at worlds.
KT have been looking solid, dispatching TSM and LGD in very one sided games. They had an extremely close game against Origen, being ahead in kills and gold early on in the game, I think they will fix their mistakes in shotcalling next week to make it out of the group handily.
I think KT and Origen will be making it out of this group, even if LGD gets it together for week two, they would have to win all three games and then deal with whatever tiebreak situation came up. It is a shame for Imp as he has been playing so well in this tournament.
Origen seem to be winning their games even with misplays on some part of the map in all of their games, the mid game shot-calling and team fighting along with some really smart pick / ban phases is coming through for them and showing in the results.
Note that Origen's games are also taking the longest in the group. Will Origen be able to compete against a team that can shut them down earlier when they make it to playoffs?
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